Markets are appreciating US efforts to seek a deal, but without concrete steps, the overarching narrative of two to three ECB rate hikes this year remains unchanged. Even for April, market pricing still points to a 60% probability of a hike. The key variable to watch remains the oil price, and that hasn’t really moved much since the start of this week. Headlines do bring some movement, but investors are reluctant to trade on every rumour related to a deal. And with Iran clearly feeling confident, the situation is still fragile and can easily escalate again. [...]