ABN AMRO’s Senior US Economist Rogier Quaedvlieg argues that US growth has slowed sharply outside AI-related activity, with near-zero job creation and downgraded GDP. Tariff-driven and Oil-related price pressures are pushing PCE inflation forecasts higher, while the Federal Reserve is now expected to stay on hold until December 2026 before starting gradual easing in 2027, as risks to core inflation remain skewed higher. [...]