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Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys

Utilizing large-scale surveys of over 27,000 respondents from 13 advanced and emerging market economies conducted between April and May 2024, we explore how knowledge, beliefs, and preferences about government debt influence expectations surrounding tax and spending policies. Our paper highlights significant gaps in public understanding of fiscal policy, revealing that individuals systematically underestimate debt levels, especially in high-debt countries, and believe that the burden of fiscal adjustments will disproportionately affect them. We further demonstrate that greater lifetime exposure to fiscal consolidation predicts increased pessimism about future economic prospects, diminishes trust in government, and is associated with expectations of higher debt, future taxes increases and spending cuts, and inflation. […]