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Public Debt Bubble and Deflation: Evidence on the Relationship Between Chinese Government Debt and the Financial System

In the post-epidemic era, the global economy is mired in recession, with concurrent government debt crises and financial fragility. Conventional monetary policy adjustments prove insufficient in addressing prevailing fiscal and financial challenges. This paper utilizes the DAG-SVAR and NARDL models to analyze both short-term dynamic interactions and long-term asymmetrical relationships among monetary-banking-market liquidity and government debt risk. The objective is to elucidate how changes in money supply impact the assets and liabilities of government sector via liquidity transmission mechanisms. Contingent claim analysis (CCA) is employed to delineate the asset-liability dynamics between fiscal and financial sectors, shedding light on how market liquidity and asset loss amplification may precipitate financialization of fiscal risk. Findings suggest that the asset value surge driven by excessive liquidity from expansionary monetary policies, post-epidemic, fails to effectively alleviate government debt pressure. Instead, government departments tend to increase their debt exposure, driven by expanded fiscal space, thus engendering a 'debt-bubble' accumulation path. Tightened monetary policy will further compound the situation by diminishing market liquidity, exacerbating the asset loss amplification mechanism, and precipitating a spiral of fiscal and financial risks. The conclusion emphasizes addressing government debt risk post-epidemic by adjusting the interest rate mechanism, streamlining monetary policy transmission, considering the synergistic effect of monetary and fiscal policies. Simultaneously, strengthening the financial supervision system is crucial to forestall potential systemic financial risks from government debt held by the financial sector.