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Does COVID-19-related debt affect government expenditure on education?

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching effects on economies worldwide, with many countries experiencing negative GDP growth in 2020 and downgraded growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022. To mitigate the economic setbacks caused by the pandemic, developing countries sought financial assistance from international partners, which contributed to higher external debt levels.  For example, between 2019 and 2020, the total volume of concessional loans increased by $ 22.2 billion (or 45.2 percent).  As a result, global external debt as a share of GDP reached 114% in 2020, one of the highest levels since 1990. High public debt could lead to fiscal consolidation, which could have implications for government expenditure, including education spending. Governments have several tools at their disposal to address a debt crisis, including inflation targeting, financial repression, debt default, or restructuring. However, reducing debt through fiscal consolidation remains one of the most common tools used by governments to curb fiscal imbalances. Fiscal consolidation refers to the government’s policy intended to reduce the fiscal deficit and the accumulation of debt. While there is no consensus on the most effective route to fiscal consolidation, empirical evidence from several countries suggests that fiscal consolidation based on expenditure reduction tends to be more effective than tax-based consolidations. […]