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Deficits and Debt in the Lens of History
U.S. debt and deficit problems look increasingly intractable. Federal government debt in real (inflation-adjusted) terms has increased for 24 consecutive years.1 Expressed in constant 2025 dollars, it is more than three times its value nearly a quarter century ago. Prior to passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that debt held by the public would rise from its current 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 117 percent of GDP by the end of 2034, on the assumption that nothing was done legislatively to address the problem.2 Subsequent legislation hasn’t helped. The CBO now estimates that the OBBBA, by widening cumulative budget deficits over the decade by a further $3 trillion, will raise 117 percent to 124 percent. […]