Long-term real interest rates play an important part in the transmission of monetary policy measures to aggregate demand. But there are concerns that the unconventional monetary policy tool of forward guidance may not be effective when policy rates fall to zero, ie reach their zero lower bound (ZLB). A further concern is that the publication of policy rate forecasts at the ZLB may be perceived as an unconditional commitment, thus undermining the credibility of monetary policy. Authors investigate both these concerns for the policy rate forecasts made by the Federal Reserve in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)