In March 2025 authors suggested the often-heralded end of organised aid from the members of the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) was perhaps actually in view. His deliberately conservative forecast at that time had DAC Official Development Assistance (ODA) falling at least 25% by 2027 from its 2023 peak; a worse case was also envisaged, in which between a third and a half of OECD-reported aid would disappear within several years, courtesy of planned reductions by a sub-group of ODA donors (hereafter, the “cutters”). The OECD’s preliminary 2025 data release of 9 April 2026 confirms the worse case is now upon us. On the OECD’s grant-equivalent headline basis, total DAC ODA (from the 32 standard members plus associate member Romania) fell from a US$229 billion peak in 2023 to US$165 billion in 2025, in constant 2024 prices — a 28% real-terms decline in two years.  […]