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China's Sovereign Debt: A Balance-Sheet Perspective

This paper we analyze China's sovereign debt by constructing balance sheets for China's government and public sector. We find that China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than that of most large developed economies. We also find the debt-to-asset ratio of China's government and public sector significantly lower than its own historical height (1998-2002). Local government debt is mainly to finance infrastructure investments. Local government debt risk is amplified by two mismatches. The first is the income-expenditure mismatch between central and local governments. The second is the maturity mismatch of short-term debt and long-term infrastructure investments. The maturity mismatch may cause short-term repayment difficulties.