Header and navigation menu

Page content

Optimizing the Maturity Structure of U.S. Treasury Debt: A Model-Based Framework

This paper describes a model that can be used to inform debt management choices facing the U.S. Treasury. The model captures the dynamic interactions between economic conditions, budget deficits, and interest rates at various maturities, and it uses that structure to assess the likely outcomes for government funding costs under any assumed debt issuance strategy. The model - which was developed by several members of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) and has appeared in several TBAC presentations - can be used to assess the tradeoffs between various issuance strategies and to explore the sensitivity of those tradeoffs to different assumptions. The results under a baseline set of assumptions suggest that issuing at intermediate maturities is appealing, as those securities do not involve high expected costs and yet are effective at smoothing variation of interest expense and deficits. In addition, the results show that debt managers can achieve considerable gains by employing a reaction function that varies issuance patterns in response to a small set of economic and financial variables.