Last July, the 2025 reconciliation bill increased the federal debt limit by $5 trillion, from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion. Since then, debt subject to the limit has increased by $2.9 trillion—consuming more than half of the increased borrowing authority. BPC now estimates that, absent congressional action, the U.S. will most likely reach the debt limit once again sometime between late winter and mid-summer of 2027. Once the government’s borrowing limit is reached, the Treasury Department would need to rely on its cash reserves and accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to meet the nation’s ongoing expenses. Those resources are expected to last roughly six to nine months, at which point the federal government would reach the X Date—the date on which it could no longer meet its financial obligations in full and on time. […]