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Climate risk and sovereign yields: Why fiscal space and development status matter
We use a large panel of 52 developed and developing economies over two decades to empirically investigate the extent to which climate risks influence sovereign yields. Transition risk is associated with higher sovereign yields, with the effect more pronounced for developing economies and for high-emitting countries after the Paris agreement. In contrast, high-temperature anomalies do not appear to be priced-in sovereign borrowing costs. At the same time, countries with high levels of debt tend to record higher sovereign yields as acute physical risk increases. In the medium term, using local projections, we find that sovereign yields respond significantly but also differently to different types of disaster. We also explore the nonlinear effects of weather-related natural disasters on sovereign yields and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on sovereign borrowing costs according to income level and fiscal space when the shock hits.