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Securing Italy’s Economic Stability in the Era of Population Ageing

Population ageing presents a significant challenge to public debt sustainability, particularly in the Euro Area. This policy brief highlights key findings from the study "Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach" by Ajovalasit, Consiglio, and Provenzano (2024). The study uses stochastic modelling to evaluate fiscal risks stemming from demographic changes in five European Union countries—Finland, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain— between 2023 and 2054. The modelling approach builds upon the risk management framework Zenios and Consiglio et al. (2021) developed, offering robust strategies to mitigate debt sustainability risks in the face of uncertainty. Particular attention is given to Italy, a country facing significant demographic and fiscal challenges. […]