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Coordinating in the Haircut. A Model of Sovereign Debt Restructuring in Secondary Markets

The disintermediation of sovereign debt markets introduced coordination frictions into restructuring negotiations. According to the data, this process coincided with a reduction in investors´ concessions to defaulting governments. This paper proposes a model to understand coordination effects in the restructuring process that embeds a coordination game at the investor decision stage. Multiplicity is addressed using a global games approach. The main finding is that coordination forces the government to ask for a lower concession, which acts as a signal to align investors’ first- and second-order beliefs. Simulations with calibrated parameters suggest that coordination costs account for a significant fraction of the haircut reduction (up to 25%) following the sovereign debt disintermediation process.