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Geopolitical Energy Shocks, Safe Havens, and Sovereign Bond Markets Evidence from the 2026 U.S.–Israeli Conflict with Iran
Geopolitical conflicts in major energy-producing regions generate shocks that propagate through global energy markets and financial systems. This paper examines how the 2026 U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran affected sovereign bond yields across countries with differing energy exposures. Because the conflict occurred in a region central to global oil supply expectations, the episode provides a useful setting to study how geopolitical energy shocks transmit to financial markets through oil price channels and global capital flows. Using daily sovereign yield data for sixteen countries and an event-window panel framework, the analysis evaluates how energy price shocks, safe-haven capital flows, and global financial conditions shape sovereign yield responses across countries and maturities. The results reveal heterogeneous yield adjustments across countries. […]