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The Birth of a Market: Euro Safe Assets between Liquidity and Euro Risk
We study the primary market of the EU bonds, i.e. fixed-income securities issued by the EU Commission on behalf of the European Union. The sample of 191 issues since June 2020 to December 2025 is compared with a sample of German bonds with matching maturities. We find that on average the yield is 42 basis points higher, increasing with maturity and with non-monotone time dynamics, rising from 28 basis points in 2020 to a maximum of 60 in 2022 to get back to 28 in 2025. There is pricing uncertainty, since the institutional setting states that the guarantee provided by the member States should be pro-rata, while investors and Moody’s consider it “equivalent to joint and several support”. We show that pro-rata pricing is only 15 points higher that the joint and several, but it is much more sensitive to credit risk in individual countries. Regressing the asset-swap yields of the EU bonds at placement on the pricing models we find that the pro-rata pricing model is statistically significant. […]