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Recession Risks Are Falling, But a Toxic Trio Still Threatens the Global EconomyIndermit
A collective sigh of relief is going up in some of the wealthiest economies. They have proved to be remarkably resilient in the face of the steepest rise in interest rates in decades. In the U.S., inflation has been whittled down, so far without much harm to growth or employment. Growth in some developing economies, including India and a few others in East Asia, has also been strong. Don’t break out the champagne yet. The near-term risk of global recession may have receded, but the world economy remains fragile . Even in the economies showing resilience, the recent upbeat mood could vanish as the slow-acting effects of high interest rates sink in. A toxic trio remains firmly in place, threatening the global economy: elevated debt levels, tighter financial conditions, and weaker growth prospects. For many developing economies, these are often the ingredients of a financial crisis. […]