Page content
Outlook 2026: Convergence and readjustment in euro area sovereign bond markets
Euro area sovereign bond markets are quietly converging again in a pattern that recalls the pre-2008 financial crisis years, but under very different conditions. As between 2000 and 2008, yield differentials across major euro area issuers have narrowed markedly, reflecting a reassessment of relative risk. This stands in sharp contrast to the post-2008 period, when market dynamics and speculative behaviour amplified divergence and produced systematic mispricing, most visibly during the 2010–12 sovereign debt crisis. This shift is not merely anecdotal. A longer-term view of 10-year sovereign yields since 2000 shows three distinct regimes: the mechanical convergence of the pre-crisis years, the explosive divergence of the sovereign debt crisis and today’s renewed convergence underpinned by institutional change rather than market complacency. […]