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Latin America’s Inflationary Past Draws Lessons About Fiscal and Monetary Largesse in Advanced Economies

Latin America’s (LA’s) vast experience with frequent and severe inflationary episodes has often been attributed to economic mismanagement (fiscal and monetary actions) and external shocks. That historical knowledge is useful given the colossal COVID-related fiscal and monetary responses in developed economies, notably the United States and Europe, with unprecedented and massive increases in deficits and debts. Latin America offers a rich understanding of the long-lasting consequences of fiscal and monetary largesse. The practical aspect is a necessary caution about today’s assumptions of a painless recovery (no recession) and a fast convergence to 2-percent inflation targets in the developed world. The inflation surge in 2020-21 is still unfinished business in advanced economies. Debt, as Latin America learned the hard way, is not “resolved” by the passage of time without a resolute will (in other words, fiscal consolidation). Debts tend to continue to pressure inflation for years to come. That is a key lesson for advanced economies from a glance at LA’s experience with debt levels and inflation rates. […]