An inverted yield curve is often seen as an early warning sign of recession. A large body of research suggests that the yield curve helps predict both GDP growth and downturns, especially in the United States and Europe. More recent experience, however, has raised doubts about how reliable that signal remains. In mid-2022, the yield curve inverted again in the United States and several major OECD economies, yet no immediate recession followed. That has led many observers to ask whether the yield curve still has the predictive power it once did. […]