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When Rising Interest Rates signal Economic Strength—and when they signal Risk
Global long-term interest rates have risen sharply, sparking fears of economic breaking points and debt crises. In early October, the U.S. 10-year rate reached 5.30%—over 400 basis points (bps) higher than it was in early 2020, and more than 100 bps higher than at the start of the year. In France, yields rose over 160 bps between March and October alone to 4.91%. These are big moves and high levels, especially for executives and investors who developed their worldview in the 2010s when interest rates were ultralow. Anyone under the age of 50 has no professional experience of sustained U.S. rates near 5%. […]