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Public debt burden and crisis severity
Recent theoretical studies have highlighted that both the level of public debt and the unit cost of servicing the debt (r - g) play a role in the sustainability of public finances. This paper builds on this literature and introduces a new approach to analysing the relationship between economic downturns and sovereign debt risks by considering the total public debt burden, that is, the interaction between the level of debt and (r - g). We conduct this analysis for 18 advanced economies over a span of 150 years, uncovering three novel findings. First, we document that the level of public debt and the interest-growth differential convey distinct information about public finances conditions, reinforcing the argument for incorporating both measures in the assessment of sovereign debt sustainability risks. Second, we offer a long-term historical perspective on the role of the total public debt burden in shaping the severity of recessions and the pace of subsequent recoveries. […]