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Curves don’t lie: Signals from bond markets
Bond yields and yield curves are often mentioned in financial media though it may not be immediately apparent what a yield curve is and why they are important. The yield curve represents the relationship between interest rates and the maturity of government bonds. In plain English, this captures the cost of borrowing money for different periods of time. Short-dated bonds reflect central bank policy rates and near-term expectations, while longer-dated bonds capture views on growth, inflation, and fiscal sustainability. The shape of the yield curve can be used to infer the health of the economy and business cycle positioning […]