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How Partisan Ideological Effects Shape Subnational Public Debt Portfolios: Explaining Variation Among Municipal Debt Instruments in Mexico
We examine subnational debt dynamics for the presence of partisan ideological effects. Most research to date has focused on structural factors driving subnational governments to fiscal excess or restraint. We argue that left-leaning subnational governments inclined toward greater spending should assume not assume not just greater public debt loads but also construct debt portfolios characterized by their less cost-effective terms. In contrast, right-leaning subnational governments’ should do the reverse. We test this argument statistically using recent data on Mexican municipal debt. The results reveal the presence of expected partisan ideological effects but also that partisan history can play a role. Future research on subnational fiscal policy and public finance should include a role for partisan ideological effects, as well as national governments designing institutional frameworks for subnational debt rights and capital markets.