The most significant news for the fiscal outlook since the spring is higher inflation following increased conflict in the Middle East. Central bank interest rates are now expected to be higher for longer, while the outlook for economic activity has weakened. There is substantial uncertainty about the likely trajectory of prices, interest rates, earnings and economic growth. This chapter examines how the changing economic outlook, alongside a range of spending pressures and new ambitions, could affect the outlook for the public finances. It explores the key decisions that the Chancellor will have to make at the Budget […]