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Global Economic Prospects June 2026: A Rising Challenge - Sovereign Debt Levels and Interest Rates in EMDEs

Rising government debt poses a key challenge for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), as it leads to higher interest rates, higher debt-service payments, and a greater likelihood of debt distress. This chapter explores the impact of government debt on interest rates. It finds that debt levels are positively associated with dollar-denominated sovereign bond spreads and domestic-currency government bond yields. The estimated relationship with debt is non-linear: the increases in spreads or yields associated with increases in debt-to-GDP ratios are greater the higher the debt-to-GDP ratio. […]