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Incorporating political risk into analysis of sovereign debt sustainability
Debt sustainability analysis (DSA) is a tool used by institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission to assess whether countries can continue with their fiscal policies without running into debt that is too large to service without major corrections. Under European Union fiscal rules updated in April 2024, the European Commission uses DSA to assess whether countries are likely to breach debt and deficit limits of 60 percent and 3 percent of GDP, and if countries that already exceed those levels are likely to be able to rein in their debts within a reasonable timeframe. […]