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Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth in Latin America, Central America, and the Caribbean

This paper examines whether a threshold effect characterises the relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth in Latin America, Central America, and the Caribbean. Using regional panel data, the analysis investigates nonlinearities in the debt–growth nexus through panel regressions and LASSO methods. The results provide no evidence of a distinct debt threshold beyond which sovereign debt becomes systematically harmful to economic growth. Instead, the relationship appears continuous and context dependent. These findings challenge the existence of universal debt thresholds and suggest that country specific factors play an important role in shaping the growth implications of public debt.