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Decompositions, forecasts and scenarios from an estimated DSGE model for the UK economy
We describe a medium-scale, open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the UK economy, which has its foundations in ‘COMPASS’, the Bank of England’s ‘Central Organising Model for Projection Analysis and Scenario Simulation’ described in Burgess et al (2013). The model we describe is augmented to include imported energy goods in production and consumption, time-varying trends, an expanded set of economic shocks and real adjustment costs. We parametrise the model via a mix of calibration and full-information Bayesian estimation. The model can match key moments in the UK data and aligns well with salient empirical impulse response functions . In this paper, authros explain how the model can be applied to produce structural decompositions, forecasts and counterfactual scenarios. […]