Page content
Persistent Inflation and Financial Instability. A study on John Cochrane's Fiscal Monetary Policy Models
I rely on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) (Cochrane 2023) to argue that, under the umbrella of fiscal spending, the US is likely to have persistent inflation linked to a period of tightening financial conditions in the the next years. Should the government spending expansion continue at the same pace, these conditions will lead to financial instability and output volatility. I focus on John Cochrane models with long-term debt, sticky prices, discount rates and policy rules and adapt different AR(1) plot variations of his models to get a sense of the responses to the fiscal shock in the the post-pandemic financial cycle, including the delayed reaction in the application of the policy rule. I draw implications of the model when we consider extended fiscal spending in this cycle and the Treasury preference for short term debt financing.