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The Last Sovereign Debt Question of 2026

As many former sovereign crisis credits transition into recovery stories, one question is attracting growing attention among investors: could Senegal emerge as the next significant sovereign debt test case? For emerging market debt investors, the mood today is very different from just a few years ago. The cluster of sovereign crisis between 2020 and 2023 triggered by the pandemic is largely behind us. Zambia, Ghana and Sri Lanka have all successfully restructured. Across emerging markets, fiscal deficits are narrowing, inflation is moderating and investors are increasingly discussing upgrades and recovery stories rather than defaults. […]