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Economic Research: Global Economic Outlook Q1 2025: Buckle Up
The global macroeconomic outlook is hostage to the policy implementation of the new U.S. administration. The recent macro pattern featuring an outperforming U.S. economy continues. But potentially large changes in fiscal, trade, and immigration policy from the U.S. are significant unknowns at this juncture. Specifically, it is unclear to what extent campaign promises will translate into policy, and when. Given the size of the U.S. economy, policy action on any of these fronts can move the global needle, affecting some economies more than others. For now, S&P Global Ratings has taken a probabilistic approach and is assuming partial implementation of U.S. campaign promises. […]