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Fiscal Sustainability and Macroeconomic Determinants of Public Debt: Insights from Morocco 2000–2023

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between some main macroeconomic variables, namely, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, the GDP growth and budget deficit, and the public debt in Morocco between2000 and 2023. Using a Restricted Error Correction Model  (RECM),  the  study  shows that  the  budget deficit is  the  primary  engine  of  debt  accumulation.  Authors  show that  inflation  and interest rates have different effects in the short and the long run; GDP grow this hiring for public debt in the short run but in the long run reduces it, emphasizing that macroeconomic stability and sustained growth is key. […]