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Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook

Low fertility and population aging have shaped the U.S. federal government’s spending and revenue patterns, contributing in large part to the growing federal debt. This paper examines the role of these trends in shaping America’s current fiscal position and the potential for a reversal of these trends to relieve domestic fiscal pressures. The authors find that the dramatic rise in fertility rates during the Baby Boom has led to a marked rise in old-age entitlement spending, as this cohort entered retirement. Rising life expectancies have also been a significant driver of increased entitlement spending and will continue to place pressure on federal deficits and debt in the coming decades. […]