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Uncertainty and the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area

This analysis examines whether monetary policy transmission in the euro area is uncertainty dependent. Do output and inflation respond differently to monetary policy when uncertainty is high rather than low? We distinguish between financial, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty and construct euro-area specific measures for each dimension from a broad set of indicators. These measures are used to identify low- and high-uncertainty regimes and estimate state-dependent local projections to compare the responses of output growth and inflation to a 25-basis-point monetary policy tightening across uncertainty regimes. The results indicate that monetary policy transmission tends to be weaker when uncertainty is high. In low-uncertainty environments, a 25-basis-point policy tightening reduces output growth by around 0.39 percentage points at its peak and leads to a 0.07 percentage-point decline in inflation. By contrast, in high uncertainty periods, the effects on both output and inflation are considerably weaker and generally statistically insignificant […]