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Global Debt, Currency Mismatch, and the Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy

This paper studies how global fiscal conditions shape the transmission of U.S. monetary policy to emerging markets. Using a quarterly panel of 18 emerging-market economies over 1999Q1--2025Q4, we estimate panel local projections with external instruments, identifying monetary-policy-driven changes in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield from high-frequency FOMC surprises. U.S. monetary tightening generates sizable spillovers: currencies depreciate, sovereign spreads and inflation rise, domestic monetary policy tightens, and investment declines. These effects are substantially stronger when global public debt is high. Moreover, the amplification is concentrated in economies with greater foreign-currency sovereign debt exposure. The results are consistent with a fiscal--financial amplification mechanism in which higher global debt increases the sensitivity of sovereign financing conditions to interest-rate shocks, while foreign-currency liabilities translate exchange-rate depreciation into greater domestic sovereign stress. Our findings show that the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy depends not only on recipient-country fundamentals, but also on the global fiscal environment and the currency composition of sovereign debt.