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Bangladesh's External Debt Dynamics: The Recent Evidence
Bangladesh's external debt position has come under intense scrutiny in light of recent political changes and growing concerns about its long-term viability. Despite frequent media attention on the rising debt, a comprehensive analysis of its recent trends remains limited in the literature. This paper systematically examines Bangladesh's external debt developments between 2012 and 2022, noting a shift toward bilateral creditors such as Japan, China, and Russia, reflecting a broader "looking East" trend among developing nations. During this period, Bangladesh's external debt grew by 232.7%, from $29.16 billion to $97.01 billion, largely driven by public sector borrowing. While key debt ratios remain below critical thresholds, rising debt-to-exports and declining reserves-to-debt ratios signal increasing vulnerability. Using frameworks such as the two-gap model, the debt overhang hypothesis, and the debt Laffer curve, the paper contextualizes these trends and underscores the importance of effective debt management and judicious use of borrowed funds for long-term economic viability.