The aim of this paper is to examine the path of public debt for a selection of European countries. To this end, we adopt a stochastic approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the macroeconomic variables underlying the debt-to-GDP ratio. The analysis builds on the standard debt accumulation identity, which links the dynamics of public debt to the primary budget balance, the real interest rate, and the economic growth rate. By estimating autoregressive models for the above variables and considering the variance-covariance matrix of the residuals to capture instantaneous causality, we obtain a distribution of debt-to-GDP ratio values for each year. From this distribution of values, it is possible to determine the probability of meeting a specific target […]