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High debt levels can hinder the fight against inflation
The COVID-19 crisis propelled sovereign debt levels around the world to new heights. At the same time, central banks are grappling with challenges posed by inflationary pressures. This column explores whether high government debt levels pose a challenge to containing inflation, focusing on the impact of government debt surprises on inflation expectations. Evidence indicates that debt surprises raise long-term inflation expectations in emerging market economies in a persistent way, but not in advanced economies. The COVID-19 crisis triggered an unprecedented surge in sovereign debt levels across the globe, posing new questions about the implications for monetary policy. Advanced economies witnessed their debt levels climb from 104% to 113% of GDP between 2019 and 2022, with emerging markets also experiencing a significant increase from 55% to 65% of GDP over the same period. For emerging market economies, this came on the heels of increased borrowing following the global financial crisis, which had already brought debt to record levels. With the IMF projecting these levels to remain high, alongside substantial pressures on public spending and rising interest burdens, a compelling question arises: Could these soaring government debt levels complicate monetary policy at a moment of persistent inflationary pressures? […]