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Energy Supply Shocks and the Inflationary Erosion of Sovereign Debt: Scenario Analysis and Ex-Post Evidence from the 2026 Hormuz LNG Disruption

Between 28 February and 31 March 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised Brent crude from approximately $72 to $118 per barrel and the European and Asian gas benchmarks by roughly 70 percent. We examine a consequence that the energy-shock and public-debt literatures have rarely studied together: partially unanticipated, supply-driven inflation erodes the real value of nominal sovereign liabilities. Using data through 15 August 2026, we decompose the 1.73 percentage-point acceleration in United States headline CPI between February and its May peak: energy contributed 1.44 points (83percent) and core effects 0.28 points, most of which had reversed by July […]