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Re-evaluating debt and deficits inducing high interest rates in the US
Since the 1980s, US long-term interest rates have been declining while public debt and deficits have been climbing. This column presents new evidence regarding the impact of fiscal variables on long-term interest rates and term premia in the US. It shows that fiscal positions have significant economic effects on long-term rates. In addition, these effects have evolved over time: they were nearly zero during the years of relative fiscal prudence around the turn of the century but have increased in recent years as fiscal positions have begun to deteriorate. […]