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A Strategic Compass for Navigating Senegal's Debt Crisis

With public debt at around 130% of GDP, Senegal’s options are limited: there are no good solutions. This paper reviews the constraints and difficult choices the government faces in managing the debt crisis. We explore two possible paths. In the first approach, the government seeks to avoid restructuring at all costs. For debt to remain sustainable, it needs to maintain extremely tight fiscal policy for an extended period and refinance existing debt at very low interest rates. We provide quantification of both efforts, and show that such a strategy could work, albeit under very narrow – and to some extent – unlikely, assumptions: the level of consolidation expected would probably deteriorate economic growth and be counterproductive, or politically unsustainable. […]