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Stochastic Fiscal Gap and Debt Dynamics: The Case for the Colombian Economy

Traditional fiscal gap analysis is only based on assumptions about discount and interest rates supplemented by demographic projections to value future government revenues required to cover the current and future obligations to honor the debt. In this paper, we offer an alternative approach. By employing a macroeconometric model, we mimic the empirical functioning of the Colombian economy traced back over the last 40 years. Then, we developed a computer program embodying all the equations describing the economy and used it to simulate the stochastic process for the period 2023–2070 with 100 replications. (For us, simulating the model for more than 100 replications was computationally costly.) […]