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Rising Sovereign Yields raise the Fiscal Stakes
High and rising debt is intensifying the interaction between fiscal policy and interest rates. New IMF research shows that when debt is already high, rising policy rates lead to a larger deterioration in fiscal deficits and debt. High debt also makes market interest rates more sensitive to fiscal developments. In the United States, for example, evidence shows that long-term forward rates have become more sensitive to projected government debt in recent years. […]