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A Simulation Model for the Analysis of the UK’s Sovereign Debt Strategy

This paper describes a simulation model that staff at the United Kingdom Debt Management Office are developing that may be used in the future for the analysis of the composition of the UK’s government bond issuance. The model consist of a trend-deviating five-equation macroeconomic model, Nelson-Siegel type yield curve models for conventional bonds and for inflation-linked bonds and a debt issuance engine. Applying different issuance strategies to the model delivers debt cost distributions that can be analysed for their average cost and risk characteristics. Illustrative issuance strategies are compared on the basis of their average cost and risk properties in order to show how the simulation model works.