Page content
Governance and the Price of Geopolitical Risk in Sovereign Bond Spreads
I test whether governance influences the impact of country-level geopolitical risk on sovereign bond spreads. The data consist of a panel of 25 sovereign bonds, observed monthly from 2000 to 2024, with fixed effects for both country and month. The interaction between geopolitical risk and governance is negative but statistically insignificant in the pooled static regressions. The interaction is negative for emerging markets, with the effect being more pronounced for countries with lower governance. These findings are insignificant after including the lagged sovereign bond spread in the model. The drop in the interaction effect after February 2022 occurs at pseudo-break points and depends on Turkey and Egypt. […]