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The Rising Costs of Variable Interest Rate Debt for Sovereigns

In advanced economies, there are concerns about a positive interest rate-growth differential (r-g) which makes it difficult to reduce debt. Among others, Olivier Blanchard has expressed concern about this issue. The situation also poses a significant threat to emerging markets and developing countries, as refinancing has become increasingly harder. In fact, a large number of countries are now excluded from bond markets. Moreover, many developing countries have variable interest debt, which means that the cost of higher interest rates is immediately transferred to the debtor. This was noted last year by Marcello Estevao, who highlighted that around 30% of the external debt of "poor" countries that are eligible for IDA financing is variable. This indicates a growing use of such mechanisms. […]