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Foreign Debt and Fear of Floating: A Theoretical Exploration

This paper explores the relationship between the denomination of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime. Unlike indexed domestic debt, foreign debt is subject to valuation e¤ects from real exchange rate shocks. In a standard set-up, where a peg functions only as a nominal anchor, more foreign debt makes pegging less attractive, because it increases the value of a ‡exible exchange rate as a shock absorber. This result can be reversed if we incorporate the stylized fact that pegs have lower real exchange rate volatility, and if external shocks are su¢ ciently large relative to domestic shocks.