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Sovereign Debt Issuance under Fiscal Budget Uncertainty and Market Frictions

The Report presents a multi-period bond issuance model of a sovereign debt management office. Sovereign liquidity needs are assumed to be only predictable with error. In a framework of costly prediction errors, stochastic variation in the term structure of debt expenses and transaction costs, authors comment on the optimal auction frequency determined by maturity allocation and issuance volume. The model is consistent with an economic discussion on welfare of debt and contributes to finance literature by presenting the minimum cost-of-debt issuance strategy with respect to market frictions. Thus, document fill existing gap between macroeconomic welfare maximization and cost minimization driven by accounting considerations.