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An alternative source of Funding to mitigate Flood Losses through Bonds: A Model for pricing Flood Bonds in Indonesian Territory

Indonesia suffers significant economic losses from floods, and state budget allocations are often inadequate. Flood bonds provide an alternative funding source, but the pricing framework is complex due to simultaneous flood and financial risk considerations. Therefore, this study aims to model flood bond prices as an alternative flood funding in Indonesia. The model is formulated using the risk-neutral-pricing measure with the stochastic assumption of the force of interest. The claim trigger is represented as maximum rainfall, which is modeled as a continuous-stochastic process with a discrete-time index. Given the varying patterns of rainy and dry seasons, we assume both durations are dynamic. Then, we provide the approximate model solution for the government to estimate bond prices quickly. This estimation shows that the bond’s trigger point is proportional to the bond prices. […]